Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Presidential elections 2012: what do the polls say?

Here are some starting points for tracking the predicted outcome.
Remember that most of the news sources listed in yesterday's posting also have poll listings too!

Gallup polls.
This includes a tracking feature as well as a blog with comment on trends. There is also a US Presidential election center where you can trace polls back to 1936.It gives a very good break down of historic trends of party support by age, race, ethnicity.

Reuters American Mosaic Polls.
initiative for 2012 in association with ipsos they are focusing upon 10 groups these include: bible belt whites, rust belt, elderly, women, military, recent graduates. The site includes polls, news and photojournalism.

Marist poll
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) survey research center

Larry Sabato's crystal ball
A comprehensive website run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics,

Real clear Politics latest polls.
News website summarises polls from a variety of sources.

Polling - non partisan reports. includes daily gallup and other tracking.

Public Policy Pollling

Rasmussen polls daily updates - some features for subscribers only.

Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and nationwide about political races,

The IEM 2012  (Iowa Electronic Markets) U.S. Presidential Election Markets are real-money futures markets where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. There are currently two markets in this set:
Pres12_VS -- based on vote shares won by the two major party candidates in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election Pres12_WTA -- a winner take all market based on the popular vote plurality winner of the 2012 U.S. Presidential election

Ladbrokes Odds. - UK based betting odds on who is likely to win.


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